Now we get to see just how much the Republicans of South Carolina will reward Newt Gingrich’s nastiness. Nate Silver’s final forecast for South Carolina has Newt winning by about 9.4%, with an 87% chance of victory. If you look at the margins of error sliders on his chart, you can see, at the extremes, that a 30 point victory for Newt is within the realm of possibility! (On the other extreme, Mitt could potentially win by 13 points, which while being equally unlikely, would be considered a huge upset now.)
By the way, someone needs to alert AT&T U-Verse that Keith Olbermann no longer works at MSNBC.
UPDATE: And… seconds after the polls close, MSNBC calls it for Newt. Not even close then. It’s a brave new world.