So yesterday was Super Tuesday. As George Will would say, “Well, <dismissive hand gesture>.” (Or as the kids these days say, “Welp.”)
I’m already on record as saying that I think that Mitt Romney will win this thing and that all of the hype around Super Tuesday or any other Tuesday is more about networks trying to get ratings than about any real drama about who will “win” this thing.
But I have to admit that, even believing that to be the case, I was still watching last night with interest to see if Rick Santorum could pull of an upset in Ohio. He didn’t. Would it have effectively changed the ultimate outcome? Like I said before, I don’t think so. Mitt Romney will be the nominee. But it would have made it a harder and potentially more damaging slog.
The New York Times has a very nice delegate counter that shows their estimation of what the delegate counts currently are. (The GOP nomination and delegate assignment process itself makes this more of a guess than an actual measurement, and that’s a whole other subject.) Here’s a screenshot of the race, as viewed by The Times.
As you can see, Mitt Romney has a commanding lead on his three remaining rivals. But the only real drama that is left is whether Romney will be able to reach 1,144 delegates before the convention in Tampa. Either he will reach 1,144 or the combination of his opponents will, sending us to every pundit’s fevered dream: the brokered convention.
With that in mind, I modified The Times’ chart as follows:
That’s the only race that matters now, and Romney is still winning. But with a bunch of Southern States to go, it is
very possible somewhat possible not impossible that Santorum and Gingrich might collectively earn enough delegates to send this to Tampa. Fingers crossed.