Turnout Watch: Super Tuesday

I’ll just start off with a list of turnout results from last night, organized by state type:

Blue States


2012 Turnout: 361,381 (98.5% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 500,550

Percent Change: -28%


2012 Turnout: 56,614 (92.7% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 39,843

Percent Change: +42.1%

Swing States


2012 Turnout: 1,194,873 (99.8% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 1,095,917

Percent Change: +9.0%


2012 Turnout: 265,520 (100% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 489,252

Percent Change: -55.8%

Red States


2012 Turnout: 12,958 (100% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 13,703

Percent Change: -5.5%


2012 Turnout: 879,760 (96.8% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 963,541

Percent Change: -8.7%


2012 Turnout: 44,672 (100% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 125,570

Percent Change: -64.5%

North Dakota

2012 Turnout: 11,349 (100% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 9,743

Percent Change: +16.5%


2012 Turnout: 286,298 (100% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 335,054

Percent Change: 14.6%


2012 Turnout: 550,169 (99.9% reporting)

2008 Turnout: 553,005

Percent Change: -0.5%

So what to take from this?  First of all, I’d like to point out that the really shocking turnout drops in here (Idaho and Virginia) should be disregarded for extenuating circumstances.  Beyond that, I think the story is the real destruction of the trend I had been watching from the beginning.  Turnout was up significantly in Ohio, down significantly in Georgia, and almost completely flat in Tennessee; according to the narrative I was pushing earlier, turnout should have been down or flat in Ohio and significantly inflated in Georgia.  Alas.  Looking at the body of turnout results now, I’m hard-pressed to come up with a coherent story from them; I have a strong temptation to reduce it to “well, turnout goes up when the race is ‘important'” but then how to explain the lackluster results in Iowa and (especially) Florida?  I think this will have to be my last Turnout Watch post unless I can come up with another plausible story to tell

Author: inuyesta

Law student with Josh Lyman dreams in a Toby Ziegler reality.


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