GOP Primary Update – Romney pulling away

Last night Mitt Romney moved one step closer to his inevitable Pyrrhic victory to be the GOP nominee to lose to President Obama. Romney easily defeated Rick Santorum 47-35 in Illinois. While the margin of victory in votes was not very impressive considering the spending differential, Romney dominated in the metric that counts: delegates. Romney picked up 43 delegates compared to Santorum’s 10, with 16 still unallocated.

While a 12-point victory might seem like a large margin, Romney remains a weak candidate who depends on outspending his opponents several times over and still can’t manage a majority against the likes of Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. People don’t like him and he’s going to get crushed in November unless he can change that.

In the only GOP race that matters, however, Romney looks like he will be able to avoid the Brokered Convention that others (especially liberals and Democrats) are hoping for. His margin over the combined field in my last update had fallen to 62 delegates after losing Alabama and Mississippi, but has now grown to 113.

Romney needs to secure 581 of the 1273 remaining delegates or 45.6%. Now, looking at his 46.7% share of the vote total you might think that will be tough for him to do, but these are delegates, not voters, and Romney is winning much more than his percentage of votes would indicate because of his superior organization, or rather his moderately competent organization vs. Santorum’s hopelessly inferior failboat.

It’s not looking good for Brokered Convention. Or comedy.

UPDATE: I forgot to include the link to The New York Times where I got the delegate counts and the basis for the graph I modified. Thank you NYT!

Author: Wiesman

Husband, father, video game developer, liberal, and perpetual Underdog.

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